I am currently interested in studying the dynamics on early stages of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, I have been working on the estimation of the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak using detection data. I'm slightly focusing on applications to the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and its variants of concern, but we developped our model in a flexible way, so that exploring other infectious diseases would also be possible.
I have also been collaborating in discussions about epidemic reemergence induced by vaccine hesitancy/fatigue, where we discuss about the dynamics of epidemics depending on the public's adoption of preventive measures.
Mathematical modeling
Epidemic control and prevention
Born in Quito-Ecuador, I obtained my bachelor degree on Mathematics at the Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN), in Quito. I moved to Paris in 2013 to enroll the Master's degree program in Applied Mathematics, MathBio speciality, at Sorbonne Université (SU), the former Pierre & Marie Curie University (UPMC) or Paris 6 University.
I did my PhD at Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP), a joint research and health unit from SU and Inserm, supervised by Virginie Supervie (Inserm) and Romulus Breban (Institut Pasteur). My doctoral research project concerned the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, accounting for voluntary adoption of preventive methods, using a game-theoretical approach. Two applications were explored: i) voluntary vaccination against chilhood infectious diseases (such as measles) and ii) pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake to prevent HIV infection among men who have sex with men at high risk of HIV infection. I defended my thesis in July, 2021.
I was a postdoctoral researcher at the Modeling, epidemiology and monitoring of health risks (MESuRS) lab, at Cnam, from September 2020 to December 2021. I worked with Kévin Jean and Laura Temime on mathematical modeling of the nosocomial spreading of COVID-19. In particular, the aim was to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among healthcare workers participating in the quarantine-hospital intervention established by the Egyptian government during the first wave ofthe COVID-19 epidemic.
I was recently a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of ecology and environmental sciences of Paris (IEES), a joint research unit from CNRS and SU. I worked with Florence Débarre (CNRS), François Blanquart (Collège de France) and Peter Czuppon (University of Münster) studying the dynamics of early epidemics. We developped a model aiming to estimate the date of emergence of epidemic outbreaks, using available case data. We applied our model to the COVID-19 epidemic, using i) data on the first reported sequences of the Alpha variant and ii) data on early COVID-19 reported cases.
Updated: April, 2023.